Blog

2025

Three Points for Bayesian Statistics in Conflict Research

bayes
causal inference
civil conflict
Bayesian inference is rarely used in quantitative conflict research (and a lot of the broader social sciences too). In this blog post, I point out some reasons for why we ought to change that!
July 1, 2025

The Overlooked Part of Confounder Adjustment

causal inference
regression
Obviously, we all know that we need to adjust for confounders, but what happens when we don’t adjust for them the right way?
June 8, 2025

Be Wary of Regression-Based Causal Effects! (Or At Least Be Careful)…

causal inference
regression
Regression is the backbone of almost all of causal inference. Yet, it is not perfect and it can have unique issues (some of which it won’t even warn you about)! In this blog, we’ll tackle what this hidden potential problem is, how to identify it, and how to respond to it.
May 26, 2025

Give Your Hypotheses Space!

causal inference
dags
simulation
It’s tempting to throw a bunch of variables of interest into a model and evaluate each variable’s ‘impact’ on the outcome, but proceed at your own caution! Check this blog out to see why that approach is most likely not the best idea…
May 15, 2025

Do NFL Referees Favor the Kansas City Chiefs?

nfl
visualization
The back-to-back NFL champions are poised for a third consecutive Super Bowl win (three-peat), which has never been accomplished before. Is such a feat possible due to unfair officiating? Let’s look at the data!
January 31, 2025
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2024